Apocaplypse or Technology upgrade

A substantial issue which John Tierney raised in the New York Times, is that combating global warming might seriously dent the growth of the poorest countries in the World.

But we need to balance uncertain future benefits against certain costs today. Most steps to combat global warming will be expensive and will slow economic growth, inevitably affecting poor people around the world. More of them will be sick, and more of their children will die. They'll be less educated and live in less technologically advanced societies.

If the past is any guide, the chief plagues and disasters afflicting future generations will be different from the ones forecast by Al Gore or any other popular prophet. The best insurance policy is to build free, prosperous societies of smart, adaptable people.

NYT (14th October 2006)

One of the dividends that we in the developing world are harvesting, is the redundancy of developing new technology.

Since much of the available technology for power production and industry relies on fossil fuel energy, the developing world does not have to invest in its development. If it were necessary to develop exclusively clean technologies, who would bear the cost both in money terms and in terms of the opportunities lost while the technology is developed, implemented and matured?

I might be wrong here, but if there are technologies available to cheaply deliver ecological benefits in excess of the cost of developing or adopting them, then why aren't people already using them?

If mature environmentally friendly technologies exist... The question then is how best to use the scarce resources available for awareness and advertising. Rather than being spent on apocalyptic prophecy about global flooding, perhaps highlighting the solutions and pushing for their widespread adoption would be more socially productive. As well as to focus the efforts on those living in the high risk coastal zones and helping the handle the impending change.

HT: Julian Morris via email on the Spontaneous Order mailing list.